PM Modi’s UAE Visit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi flies to United Arab Emirates on May 15 at a tense moment for global fuel security.
The US-Israel war on Iran has rattled shipping lanes in the Middle East. Insurance costs are up. Freight is uncertain. Oil traders are nervous. The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil corridor, is under watch.
Any disruption shows up quickly in pump prices, inflation, and the current account math as India imports over 85 per cent of its crude. This is the backdrop to PM Modi’s brief stop in Abu Dhabi to meet UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Therefore, it’s expected that energy will dominate the conversation between the two leaders. But not just spot supplies. The talks are expected to focus on long-term crude and LNG contracts, and on expanding India’s strategic petroleum reserves with UAE support.
What India Is Likely To Ask For?
India has three strategic oil reserve sites with 5.33 MMT capacity. Two more are planned with another 6.5 MMT. Part of the existing storage is already leased to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. New arrangements could expand this model.
Observers expect India to push for:
- Assured long-term crude supplies
- More LNG flows for cooking gas security
- UAE participation in expanding India’s oil storage capacity
- Flexible supply terms in case shipping routes are hit
The UAE’s recent exit from OPEC gives it more room to raise output. This makes it a reliable swing supplier at a time when others may be constrained.
In January, India signed a $3-billion LNG deal with the UAE. This visit could build on that. Notably, India and the UAE signed the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022. Trade has surged since.
The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner. Bilateral trade is targeting $200 billion in the coming years.
Talks will review CEPA progress and open new lanes in:
- Infrastructure investment
- Clean energy and logistics
- Food corridors and essential supplies
- Defence and cybersecurity cooperation
This is no longer a simple buyer-seller oil equation. It is turning into an energy-plus-investment corridor.
Why The Strait of Hormuz Keeps Coming Up In Delhi
A large share of India’s oil and gas cargo passes through Hormuz. Any threat there means:
- Longer shipping routes
- Higher freight and insurance
- Delays in cargo arrival
- Immediate pressure on domestic fuel prices
Both sides are expected to discuss maritime security and uninterrupted trade flows through this corridor.
Besides, over 4.5 million Indians live in the UAE. They work across sectors. They also send back some of India’s largest remittance flows. This human link adds weight to the relationship. Stability in the UAE directly affects Indian households and India’s forex flows.
What Experts Say About PM Modi’s Visit
Abhinav Munshi, Managing Partner at Razor Capital, says the visit comes at a “strategically critical moment” as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipping routes, energy supply chains, and even food and chemical trade flows.
He points out that this is the second face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in under five months. This signals urgency.
Munshi notes that the UAE has doubled its share in India’s oil basket from under 5 per cent in 2021 to nearly 10 per cent in 2025. It has also risen to become the second-largest LNG supplier to India.
He argues the relationship is shifting from supplier-consumer to a genuine energy partnership, where both sides build joint infrastructure across the corridor. On trade, he says CEPA has already pushed merchandise trade past $100 billion in 2025, well ahead of earlier targets.
On capital flows, Munshi highlights that UAE institutions have invested over $25 billion in India, with $16 billion coming in just the last five years. Given the size of UAE sovereign funds, he sees room for this to rise sharply over the next decade.
He also underlines the role of remittances — $26 billion from Indians in the UAE in 2025 — which help bridge a large part of India’s trade deficit.
What To Expect After The Meeting
Expect announcements or signals around:
- Long-term crude and LNG supply frameworks
- Expansion of India’s strategic oil storage with UAE participation
- Faster progress under CEPA in logistics and infrastructure
- Deeper defence and maritime security coordination
- Fresh UAE investment commitments into India
From Abu Dhabi, PM Modi travels onward to Europe (Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy). But this first stop is about insulating India from an oil shock before it hits harder.
