The world could face one of its worst climate conditions, leading to forest fires, droughts, floods, record-breaking temperatures, and sea ice in coming months due to an intense El-Nino condition developing in the Pacific Ocean.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, forecasts predict a “global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.
Some weather agencies are also saying that the coming event will be even stronger – possibly rivalling a “super” El Nino three decades ago.
“The likelihood of harmful extreme fires potentially could be the highest we’ve seen in recent history if a strong El Nino does develop,” said Keeping, who is part of World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of climate scientists, AFP reported.
Seasonal models have predicted that an El Nino pattern could develop between May and July this year and may become one of the strongest on record.
‘Super El Nino’
The Washington Post reported that rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean could lead to a ‘super’ El Nino this year. The latest outlook from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows water temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean potentially reaching 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average late in the year, which could surpass the record of 1877 and 2015 and exceed the threshold for a super El Nino.
“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany, Washington Post reported.
The intensity of this phenomenon was amplified by a rare trio of cyclones in the Pacific last month. These storms generated a record-breaking surge of winds that pushed a massive stream of warm water beneath the ocean surface, raising temperatures to 7 degrees Celsius (12.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. Such a dramatic ocean temperature anomaly is unusual because oceans generally warm and cool very slowly, Washington Post reported.
What is El Nino?
The El Nino or ENSO involves fluctuations in ocean water temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with atmospheric changes. Meaning “boy child” in Spanish, this naturally occurring phenomenon has a huge impact on climate conditions around the world.
The term El Nino was first used by fishermen in Peru and Ecuador in the nineteenth century to describe the phenomenon of rising temperatures in the Pacific before Christmas.
Impact of El Nino
The impact of El Nino is already being seen by a surge of forest fires. A total area exceeding 163 million hectares has been engulfed in fire between January and the first week of May, AFP reported, citing data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS).
“The likelihood of harmful extreme fires potentially could be the highest we’ve seen in recent history if a strong El Nino does develop,” said Keeping, who is part of World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of climate scientists.
Several countries in West Africa witnessed record breaking fires. The United States and Australia have also seen unseasonably large areas burnt this year, Keeping said, AFP reported.
WWA co-founder Friederike Otto also warned that “there is a serious risk” that the combination of climate change and El Nino could result in “unprecedented weather extremes” this year.
However, she said that El Nino is “not the reason to freak out, climate change is.”
Impact on India
In India, El Nino is usually associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoons.
Large parts of the North Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, have started recording warmer-than-average temperatures, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data. It also showed that surface temperatures over Central Asia and Southeast Asia are extremely high once again.
Ahead of El Nino, temperatures over northwest India have largely been mild, interspersed with thunderstorm activity in May.
