By Aliyu Galadima
Cocoa prices have jumped 24% month-to-date in May on the global commodities market, climbing back above the $4,400-per-tonne level lost during the sharp downturn recorded in January 2026.
The recovery began gradually, with the commodity posting mild gains through March and April before bullish momentum strengthened significantly in May.
A prolonged selloff that began in June 2025 had earlier pushed cocoa prices from above $9,000 per tonne to a low of $2,888 in February 2026 amid a global oversupply glut.
Fresh supply concerns have now re-emerged in Ivory Coast, where below-average rainfall and ongoing farmer protests over unpaid cocoa deliveries are raising fears of weaker output in the next harvest season.
According to a Reuters interview with farmers in Daloa, West-central Ivory Coast, a cooperative representing more than 300 farmers recently staged a protest over unpaid cocoa deliveries.
The protesting farmers said they had yet to receive payment for beans sold during the October-to-March main-crop harvest season despite earlier government assurances.
Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council said it would send officials to calm tensions after police reportedly tear-gassed farmers protesting unpaid cocoa deliveries and blocking roads last week.
Unsold cocoa stocks built up across Ivory Coast in November and December 2025 after a global supply glut triggered a steep collapse in prices.
During the downturn, cocoa prices plunged from yearly highs above $10,000 per tonne to below $6,500 in November as oversupply pressures weighed heavily on the commodities market.
Although the government introduced a programme to purchase unsold cocoa beans from farmers, many cooperatives say payments for the October-to-March main crop remain outstanding.
“This situation will affect the next main harvest because growers were counting on that money from the government to maintain their plantations”, said farmer Albert Konan.
Alongside the protests, patchy and below-average rainfall across major growing regions in Ivory Coast has heightened concerns over smaller and lower-quality mid-crop production, helping cocoa prices surge more than 32% quarter-to-date.
In early May 2026, the Ghana Cocoa Board announced plans to raise $1 billion through domestic bonds to finance cocoa purchases for the 2026/2027 season.
The move forms part of efforts to reduce Ghana’s dependence on dollar funding and foreign lenders while restructuring how cocoa is financed and delivered to global buyers.
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, has faced severe market volatility and financing pressures following the sharp collapse in cocoa prices during 2025.
In Nigeria, cocoa farmers across Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti raised concerns in March 2026 over falling global prices, citing financial hardship and growing difficulty sustaining their livelihoods.
However, with cocoa prices recovering above $4,400 per tonne and approaching key resistance levels near $6,000, farmers across major producing regions may finally see some relief.
Cocoa prices plunged over 40% in 2025 from highs above $10,000 per tonne, struggling to sustain momentum and eventually losing the $6,000 level.
The decline extended into Q1 2026, when prices fell by over 43%, slipping further below the $4,000 per tonne threshold amid sustained market pressure.
A recent rebound in Q2 2026 has since supported the commodity, helping it stabilize and firm back above the $4,000 per tonne level.
