The story of inflation in Nigeria is not written in central bank communiqués or quarterly GDP reports. It is written in the cost of a pot of jollof rice.
SBM Intelligence has tracked the price of this national staple across markets since 2016, and the trajectory is a chronicle of a country slowly pricing itself out of its own citizens’ reach.
In the first quarter of 2026, the national average cost of a standard pot of jollof rice hit an all-time high of ₦30,435. To understand what this number means, you have to walk back through the wreckage of the past six years.
In April 2020, at the peak of the COVID-19 lockdowns and the land border closure, a pot cost ₦7,590. The pandemic disrupted supply chains, and the border closure, imposed in August 2019 to curb rice smuggling, had unintended consequences.
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It choked off legal imports and drove up local prices without a corresponding boost to domestic production. By early 2022, the cost had climbed to ₦8,595. Diesel prices had surged, petrol was scarce, and insecurity in food-producing regions was beginning to bite.
Year Of Shocks
Then came 2023, the year of shocks. In March 2023, the naira redesign cash crunch and fuel scarcity pushed the price to ₦10,882. In May, the new government removed the fuel subsidy and unified the exchange rate.
The pass-through was almost instantaneous, and by June, the same pot cost ₦12,373. Imported inputs, from rice to vegetable oil to seasoning, became more expensive as the naira lost value.
By September 2023, the price had reached ₦13,106, driven by the continued effects of subsidy removal and the closure of the border with Niger, which disrupted grain and onion supplies.
This trend has not relented. By March 2024, the naira had plunged to over ₦1,600 per dollar, and imported food inflation was rampant, and a pot cost ₦16,955. By June 2024, a tomato pest infestation (the Tuta absoluta) had doubled the price of fresh tomatoes, pushing a pot to ₦20,274.
In September 2024, petrol prices were hiked to ₦1,030 per litre, and unprecedented floods across 29 states further devastated farmland. The cost rose to ₦21,300. By March 2025, it had reached ₦25,486. In June 2025, it peaked at ₦28,066.
The only respite came in the third quarter of 2025, when a seasonal harvest influx brought a temporary decline to ₦26,656. But even that correction was fragile and localised. In Kano, the index still rose 6.8 per cent, driven by logistics costs, informal checkpoints, and the embedded risk premiums that insecurity imposes on every bag of grain moved from farm to market.
Iran War
Then came the Iran War. In February 2026, Brent crude spiked above $110 per barrel. Nigeria, despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, has no strategic fuel reserve, so petrol prices nearly doubled, while diesel surged above ₦1,500 per litre.
Transport fares tripled on some corridors, grain freight costs rose 56 per cent, and by the end of March 2026, the Jollof Index hit its record high of ₦30,435.
What does this mean for the average Nigerian?
When a pot of jollof rice costs more than the monthly minimum wage in some states, the meal moves from a daily staple to a weekly luxury. Families adjust by reducing portion sizes, substituting ingredients, or skipping meals altogether.
