A study published on Thursday has revealed a significant increase in violence across several African nations following Donald Trump’s abrupt decision last year to dissolve the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
While the authors of the study did not directly attribute the surge in conflict to the aid cuts, they concluded that “large-scale, sudden aid cuts can destabilise fragile settings.”
USAID, once a leading global aid donor, had for many years provided crucial support to African countries grappling with conflict and instability.
The Trump administration’s move effectively eliminated over 90 per cent of foreign aid contracts, cutting approximately $60 billion in funding.
The research, conducted by academics from European and American universities and published in the journal Science, noted that the sudden withdrawal of USAID resources also interrupted existing contracts, staffing, and aid procurement.
It stated: “The abrupt withdrawal of USAID led to a significant and sustained increase in conflict across Africa’s most USAID-dependent regions.”
The authors further clarified that their findings do not suggest that increased aid necessarily reduces conflict, but rather highlight “the effect of a sudden and unexpected disruption.”
The researchers said they examined whether the abrupt shutdown of USAID was followed by an increase in violence in regions of Africa that had historically received the most support and found that there was a correlation.
Africa is facing a threat from jihadis more than any other region in the world, conflict experts say. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, or ACLED, said Wednesday in a new report that jihadis in the region have been more involved in violence across the board and have been increasingly targeting civilians in the last four years.
USAID had long been the key funding partner for many African countries, helping to provide funding that helped governments and aid groups respond to multiple crises across different sectors.
In Nigeria for example, USAID support had helped victims of the militant Boko Haram group, which emerged in 2002. In Ethiopia’s fragile Tigray region, officials relied heavily on U.S. funds as full-scale recovery efforts were yet to start after the war there killed hundreds of thousands.
And in northern Ivory Coast, a front line of the global fight against extremism, USAID had made significant financial commitments to counter the spread of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
The findings from the study underscore the lasting impact of funding cuts, said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health, who was not among the authors of the study.
“The lasting problem with the shuttering of USAID is likely going to be that for much of its conflict prevention work, even if you put back all the money … the experience is gone,” Raymond said.
Also, some USAID programs may have helped prevent spillover from conflict zones, said Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at ACLED.
“We now see increasing insurgency and spillover, so some of those programs may have supported these communities from insurgent threats, and now they are no longer active,” said Serwat.
