The ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has triggered a sharp decline in clean petroleum product imports into West Africa, reducing tanker flows and reshaping regional shipping routes, according to a report by S&P Global.
Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed that West African imports of clean refined products fell from 997,000 barrels per day in April to 765,000 barrels per day in May, representing a 23 per cent decline.
The report said the drop was largely driven by the expansion of output from the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, which is increasingly displacing imported fuel volumes across the region.
Shipping association BIMCO was quoted as saying that West African imports of clean refined products fell significantly within a month as the Nigerian refinery ramped up production.
According to BIMCO analysts, imports dropped by 44 per cent over the period under review, while overall tonne-miles also declined sharply as regional trading patterns adjusted to the new supply reality.
“LR1 and LR2 product tankers recorded the largest declines, down 88 per cent and 78 per cent respectively, and together accounted for 55 per cent of the total tonne-mile loss,” S&P quoted BIMCO as saying.
The association noted, however, that MR product tanker tonne-miles fell only marginally despite a broad decline in imports from major loading regions.
It explained that while traditional import flows dropped, a significant rise in volumes from the Americas helped cushion the overall impact on MR tankers.
“MR product tanker tonne-miles fell only 4 per cent year over year during April to May, despite a sharp drop in imports from all major loading regions. A 34-fold increase in volumes from the Americas largely offset the decline, limiting the overall loss,” BIMCO said.
The report noted that the Rotterdam-to-Lagos fuel trade had historically been a major corridor for MR tankers, but said that route has weakened considerably as Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity expands.
Analysts at Commodities at Sea said available data showed a 39 per cent year-on-year decline in Nigeria’s clean petroleum product imports by mid-2025, effectively removing a major source of employment for MR tankers in the Atlantic Basin.
“Data indicated a 39 per cent year-on-year drop in Nigerian clean petroleum product imports by mid-2025, essentially removing a massive source of employment for MR tankers in the Atlantic,” CAS analysts said.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, also reported a decline in freight rates on the UK/Continent-to-West Africa route, reflecting weaker demand for long-haul fuel shipments into the region.
The Dangote Refinery, commissioned in 2024, reportedly reached its full 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity in February 2026 and is now supplying a large portion of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs.
According to government figures cited in the report, the refinery supplied about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s gasoline demand in April.
Analysts said the refinery’s growing output is not only reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products but also repositioning the country as a regional exporter of refined fuel.
The report said petroleum products are now being shipped from Lagos to neighbouring West African countries, including Ghana, Togo and Ivory Coast, as well as to destinations such as South Korea, the United States and Europe.
This development, analysts said, is replacing long-haul fuel imports with shorter regional “shuttle” voyages. While this may increase the frequency of tanker calls within the region, it reduces overall tonne-miles compared to previous global import routes.
The shift is also affecting the role of key storage and redistribution hubs such as Lomé, Togo, which had served as a major offshore import and storage hub for fuel destined for Nigeria and other West African markets.
BIMCO’s Niels Rasmussen reportedly said Lomé may struggle to recover Nigeria’s former import volumes under the new supply structure.
