Key members of OPEC+ are planning gradual oil quota increases over the coming months to fully restore a previously halted production by September at the latest.
According to a Bloomberg report, the group has already agreed to return about two-thirds of a 1.65 million barrels per day output cut implemented in 2023 and is expected to proceed with additional quota increases in three further monthly tranches.
However, actual production gains remain constrained as the ongoing Iran-related conflict continues to disrupt exports from key Middle Eastern supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has continued to provide limited, largely symbolic supply increases despite geopolitical tensions, even as global oil markets face tight supply and elevated prices.
According to delegates who spoke to Bloomberg, the group intends to proceed with its phased quota restoration plan, even if actual output adjustments remain limited by operational and geopolitical constraints.
Three additional monthly quota increases are expected as part of the phased return of supply.
The next OPEC+ policy meeting is scheduled for June 7, where July production levels will be reviewed.
The delegates noted that while quotas are being adjusted upward, several member countries are unable to meet revised targets due to supply disruptions and infrastructure constraints.
Before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, eight key OPEC+ members had begun gradually restoring production that was previously curtailed to manage a global oil glut.
The group had initially cut 1.65 million barrels per day in 2023 as part of efforts to stabilise prices.
The United Arab Emirates recently exited OPEC, reducing the effective scale of the original production cut agreement.
Despite the UAE’s departure, remaining members approved a modest increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June during their May 3 meeting
The next review will determine production policy for July and beyond.
The group previously announced a planned production quota increase of 206,000 bpd for May 2026, aimed at offsetting supply disruptions linked to ongoing conflict.
OPEC countries currently account for roughly 40% of global crude oil production, though this share has been declining over time.
